Visit Stephen Leahy’s Website

•March 24, 2009 • Leave a Comment

http://stephenleahy.net/

I encourage all of you to connect with the important work of Stephen Leahy. He has devoted his life to environmental journalism and has pretty much had to struggle ever since.

Sadly it is still true that the severe challenges we face are not being covered in the main stream press.

Our politicians easily lapse into gooey assurances that we are plotting a responsible path toward meaningful control of the climate degradation.  Basically they are shoveling manure.

We are at the crossroads and the actions we take in the next few years will determine whether we can even survive in the future. As long as the whores for the private sector deny what is unfolding, they doom us to a certain extinction. Those are the terms, this is the challenge of our species for all time.

Stephen is doing his part. Contribute to his efforts if you can. Dedication to science and truth in this world is difficult economically. Only the most dedicated take that uncertain path. Stephen is one of them.

Flowers, But No Bees?

•March 21, 2009 • Leave a Comment

I am a professional nature photographer among other things.  It is now wildflower season, and I have spent a few days shooting pictures of the early wildflower bloom here in NW Arkansas.

NW Arkansas where I live is pristine.  I live adjacent to a wilderness area. My neighbors raise cattle, but there are few herbicides and fewer still insecticides. The water is very clear. This is a relatively clean place, lots of wildlife, abundant nature.

Today for the first time the realization washed over me that I haven’t seen any bees. Not one.

Not one.

If you are an environmentalist and you are unaware of “colony collapse disorder” then your education is incomplete. Colony collapse disorder has been sweeping regions of the country for years to such a degree that many industrial farmers must hire and truck in hives of bees. No bees= no pollination= no harvest.

I have read that the loss of these reliable pollinators will knock 30% out of the food supply. Nobody seems to know why or how they disappear, but once gone they don’t return. Bees are one more canary in the cave that is perishing mysteriously.

Currently national food reserves are at an all time low.  No bees, no food, no stored food, drought in California.  It ain’t pretty.

Flowers everywhere, but not a bee. There are terrible times and our ecosystem is slowly collapsing. We are a part of that ecosystem, not outside it.

Changing a damn light bulb will not fix this.  Consuming “green” will not fix this.

I took wildflower pictures for two hours and didn’t see a bee.

Not one.

Not one.

Is It Already Too Late?

•February 23, 2009 • 1 Comment

It is difficult to not go completely “negative” about current climate change data. Tere is no quarrel by any serious scientist about global warming, the question now is this: have we crossed the tipping point, the point of no return. A growing body of scientists are now suggesting that perhaps we have. Maybe the struggle to stem the causes of global warming is past reversal or mitigation.

In 2008 the increase in atmospheric concentration of co2 was 3.5%, in contrast to averaging .9% in recent years. This dramatic increase was attributable to the runaway increase in coal burning, particularly in China. We are not without guilt, afterall, the US economy for some time has consumed Chinese goods as though that was part of our constitution. At its base, pollution is about consumption.

The current edition of Radio Ecoshock features a interview with V Ramanathan, a distinguised atmospheric scientist, who asserts we already have 2.4 degrees C warming, and the only barrier between us and this level of heating is ironically our atmospheric aerosols blocking the sunlight. He went on to suggest, that with the current deep crash of the world economy, reduced smog will unleash this stored heat, and there is the very real possibility that a dramatic increase in global heating will occur in a relatively small time.  Put more simply, close a lot of coal-fired power plants due to reduced energy demand, and you get a dramatic increase in global heating measure in a year or two, not decades.

2.4C is roughly 4.oF. Our current global warming, without this increase, is driving world desertification. On our current trajectory world wide famine is a certainty. Many agricultural plants cannot take the projected level of heat increase, let alone the desertification. At an temperature increase of 1.5C world rice crops fail.

We can’t solve this problem by thinking good thoughts and changing a light bulb, we have to make dramatic reductions in our consumption. This most certainly will hasten our economic collapse. Even with all of that, we still may be headed for extinction.

We must act by consuming much less, and we had better learn to love it. It is our one best chance. Denial is despair’s ugly parent because it prevents us from seeing the problem. We cannot negotiate with this reality any more than we can negotiate away our deaths. When we finally face the problem, and believe the science, the challenge will become to be resourceful and act.

I think it was James Baldwin who said “the only sin is despair, because it is primary, and all other sins derive from it”. Despair must not be the result of facing the difficult problem of climate change and reducing consumption. Our quality of life is not based in consumption, it resides in how we find meaning and purpose in our lives. Understanding this will be our challenge and it will test us at the boundaries of our character. This is the crux of our current dilemma. This is the challenge of our times. This is the key to the human prospect.

BraveNewClimate.com

•February 19, 2009 • Leave a Comment

I have just run across another excellent resource that I recommend to everyone, bravenewclimate.com.  This is the personal blog and website of Barry Brook, a distinguished professor of climate change and the University of Adelaide in Australia. Dr. Brook is one of those gifted, rare thinkers like Nate Hagens of theoildrum.com. He has published over 140 peer-reviewed scientific papers on climate change.

This website should be on your required reading list. Visit periodically and learn what the brightest and best minds are saying about the future of our planet, and what we must do now. The site includes guest posts in addition to Dr. Brook’s work.

This site is wide ranging and competent. The articles are concise and scientifically sound, and culled worldwide from the work of the very best scientists concerned with climate change and the implications of our multiple current crises to the future of our species.

This is difficult ground, but it is fundamentally important that we understand and face where our current situation. The ecosystem is spinning into disclocation and collapse, we face economic and geopolitical collapse, and the requirement to mount a meaningful response has narrowed down to less than a decade.

Dr. Brook was interviewed as part of the latest installment of ecoshock.com. I encourage you to listen to that interview as well.

We face very difficult times. It is past time for everyone to prepare for the worst of times, and pressure our leaders to face the environmental crisis head-on. As things stand now, we are only gesturing around the edges of the problem. There is no time left for “pretend” measures. Our fate is in the balance.

Thoughts on Investing in 2009

•February 15, 2009 • Leave a Comment

Listening to NPR one would think that the economy was in a deep upset, but it best understood as business as usual with significant hardship. Two different commentators suggested that, in this recession, one might have to make some sacrifices, like giving up on a second home or condo, and that one probably should save more, but not excessively as the economy needed spending to recover.  Seriously.

A while back I quit contributing to NPR because I no longer consider the reporting to have much substance. Much as the American media has gone trivial, NPR has continued to lower its bar steadily. Today it serves up a lot of pablum, and sadly, talking points, as though that were journalism. Our society now punishes hard journalism, and it seems clear that NPR is not going to take any risks. This has been a deep personal loss.

The suggested rule of thumb for investing was to invest in cash and CDs (conservative investments) in the same proportion as ones age expressed as a percent. In other words, if you are 60, you would be 60% in CDs (or the equivalent), with the remainder in stocks per your 401K. So far as I can tell, this formula is the same formula we have been offered all along. The one that resulted in your recent losses.

Surely, they jest.

What all these whiz-bang financial experts do not consider is that we are in a new context, the same one that drove stocks straight into the ground. In terms of real value, the old time price/earnings ratio, the current market is still very over valued, even now after recent losses. In the context of the impending oil crisis, the dramatic collapse of consumer spending, multiple bank failures, and the total loss of consumer spending, there is no rational basis for optimism about the future of stocks.

The simplest fact — consumer spending has collapsed.

Our economy is about 70% determined by consumer spending. We are bleeding jobs now, and unemployment rates are the highest they have been in decades. Real measurements place unemployment at 18%.  Employed people are scared to death. We are in downward spiral of lost income and lost consumption. People are covering up, paying off bills, and saving. As they consume far less, businesses are folding up. This includes very big businesses who sell stock, i.e., the bedrock of the stock market like the auto manufacturers, fianancials, and even raw materials producers.

History’s lesson.

The data shows we entered a true depression the last quarter of 2008. This is only deepening. The only reason people don’t speak plainly of a depression is that we live in a kill the messenger society. We are in depression now. You can see the signs everywhere if you care to look.  Worse still, we are not at the bottom of the downward spiral, and we are now still in free fall. This is Humpty Dumpty territory. The last time this happened, it took decades to recover to prior levels.  Arguably the Depression ended and pulled even with WWII.

Revisiting Time Worn Advice

Who should be in stock now? Nobody. Get your money out and run. Find the best counter-cyclical investment you can or just get federally insured CDs, because this economic ship is heading to the bottom. As they say, cash is king.

Bargain stocks without consumption? Huh?

Get the hell out of the stock market and sit this out. Don’t believe the garbage about your investment horizon because this is based on 20/20 hindsight. We are in a radically new and different context now, and one cannot enlarge from the past to predict the future.  Any recovery will require abundant, cheap energy, and we are in an energy crisis.  Any recovery will require employed consumers, and they are either unemployed or covering up. There will no longer be easy credit for them, they have no home equity to draw down. These last two sources for spending have been the wobbly legs holding this mess together for the last few years.

Get on the sidelines and wait. If you must invest, think about commodities, they are the traditional safe haven.  The government no longer can sell bonds readily so it is printing money not backed by bonds. This leads to hyper-inflation. Some feel that the national debt is so great now that this hyper-inflation is designed to discount that debt, basically inflate it away. We shall see.

Do your homework, find the very best local, sound bank you can find and work with them. They exist, and many are profitable. It is primarily the big banks that seem to have the problem with runaway excesses if not outright incompetence and fraud. Recently 38 of them have failed. (This should also impact your thinking about the state of the economy.)

Then there is the fundamental problem of trust. Who do you trust? Name an instance of effective federal regulation. Looks to me like the private sector now longer has much of a moral compass. Add the trust problem, to everything above, and how anyone can imagine that stocks offer a sound, traditional, investment option for everyone is beyond me. It does look like madness. It looks like advice from “experts” with no grasp of history or our current circumstances.

Lessons from the Great Ice Storm of 2009

•February 9, 2009 • Leave a Comment

We are just emerging from the most damaging ice storm to hit this area in anyone’s memory. Roughly 1.5 inches of ice accumulated on everything, even blades of grass. For over a week we had no water, and no electricity — a challenge in the dead of winter. Fortunately, the climate in Arkansas is relatively mild, and for the most part we avoided severe cold during this period. Many around here still have no electricity and water, 12 days after the storm.

What have we learned from this? Why is it relevant to this blog?

This was a dress rehearsal for collapse and relocalization. It is interesting that in this area there are two very different contexts to compare. First, there is Harrison, the city dwellers 22 miles away living in conventional neighborhoods with the presumed conveniences of city life. In contrast, there is here, Newton County, a very sparsely populated rural area composed of farms and some retirees — country people. It is instructive to see how differently the small town and rural areas reacted to the crisis.

Harrison, a small town of 12,000 or so, with a somewhat larger metro area, was deeply impacted by the crisis, even though the ice storm was harder on the rural areas. (As I write this there are still many who here who have no water or electricity after two weeks.) People in Harrison have no backup systems. Without water, electricity, and heat (due to lack of electricity), many abandoned their homes and drove 25 miles away to stay in Branson, MO hotels and motels discounted to assist storm vicitims. Without electricity, the customary comforts of life were gone for them. No fast food, no TV, reduced grocery availability, and most businesses closed for many days. Even gasoline was not widely available. In the immediate aftermath of the storm, mile long lines of cars waited to get gas at the few service stations that were open.  In many cases, people huddled in the few homes that had heat. The community did organize emergency shelters, and there was the distribution of drinking water.  Basically, except for stop-gap measures, the community was on its knees until electricity was restored.

In contrast, rural Newton County residents responded quite differently. As rural people we are accustomed to taking care of our own problems. We don’t have extensive services, never have, and likely never well. As a result, when trees broke down and blocked our roads, residents fired up their chainsaws and cut them out.  Not a crisis, just a part of how we manage downed trees around here except this time with more to do. There was not such a big deal and our roads were clear in about two or three hours.  Trees continued to break down, and we continued to cut them up, but we stayed ahead of the problem pretty easily. Nice firewood kicker too.

Electricity for us is needed but not essential. If you live in a rural area grid failures are common enough that you have back-up plans. We lived by the sun, lit candles and keronsene lamps, or just enjoyed light from our glass front wood stoves. We cooked both on the wood stove, and on hand-lit propane stoves. This was inconvenient, but not so out of the ordinary that we didn’t know what to do.  Water is the remaining issue, but not a problem in a rural setting in Arkansas. We hauled water from our spring and captured roof meltoff for flushing the toilets and watering our animals. In contrast to Harrison, I don’t know anyone in our rural area who abandoned their home, not even the very elderly.  We just dug in and did what we know how to do. It would have been no problem to go for weeks without electricity or propane because doing without these conveniences is well understood. We took care of ourselves, and checked in on one another.

It is now becoming more evident that a serious dislocation is in our future due to the accelerating collapse of the economy. Many still hold out hope for a return to the old order if just a few years ago, and are in denial, but the collapse is now in clear view. How will we fare in Newton County? For us it will not be much different. We will slaughter our own animals and eat out of the woods as well. We are all gardeners, usually raising far more than we can consume. We put food by, we trade everything. The way we live is not poverty, but it extends from a durable cultural memory of poverty. Living closer to necessity is a habit borne out of our preferences for simplicity and the satisfaction of a large measure of self-sufficiency. We live close to nature and have a reverence for the wild.  We are a community.

Newton County is the Plan B to the world’s Plan A. We could have easily lived on indefinitely without electricity. How long is not clear. I believe none of us feel or felt particularly overwhelmed. It is a little frustrating to have so much downed timber. Yesterday, on my 60th birthday I cut wood and burned tree brush just about all day long. I hate the way the trees look now, but with the spring and leaf-on the scars of the storm will be largely hidden. It is no different than for any of us, there have been disappointments and inconveniences in our lives, but life itself is optimistic, and self-healing, and we move ahead with an expectation of renewal and positive expectancy. We did lose a lot of big limbs, we also gained many years of firewood.  No great change manifests just one way.

Next week I begin the long process of sprouting my seedlings for the garden.  This year I will probably grow 5 kinds of tomatoes, three kinds of potatoes, summer squash, pole beans, greens, cucumbers, and who knows what. Every year I get seeds that nobody in their right mind would try. It’s all good. I grow a bean called “trail of tears”, a seed that dates far back into pre-history. I meditate on the suffering of the native americans who migrated through here, they grew this bean. They understood true hardship and suffering, yet they planted and went on. Nothing we moderns do or experience is hard by comparison, yet many of us imagine ourselves in deep hardship when the electricity goes out. It is nonsense.

With the collapse, most of us will have to find a way to rethink what constitutes the good life. People in our rural circumstances are where we need to be. There will be farther to go even for us, but we are tough, resilient, and capable. We don’t think about it too much, we just plow ahead, and we work together. We laugh a lot, and just dig in. I think our lives and strategies for living are what America must rediscover. It’s not bad at all, just a little inconvenient at first.  Everything will be alright, just different. It’s time to rethink what matters most, and make other plans.

The Promise of Our New American Era is Re-Localization

•January 21, 2009 • Leave a Comment

Our new President Obama’s election and inauguration has inspired us all. We rightfully have the sense that we are reborn, and if the election was metaphor, America has shucked off “me first” once and for all.  We are now one.

Like our new President Obama, I am a community organizer by training, experience and instinct. Obama has challenged us to create our solutions through sacrifice, selflessness and hard work. That must be our path.

Our solutions to the challenges we face will be local. Re-localization is on us, and the biggest challenge of all will be to push back from the TV and world of conveniences, and resolve to do the hard work of building community solutions. We must understand that solutions are not consumed, or elected, but made.

This is our test. The election of Obama is only a beginning. He can lead, and I believe he has the real possibility of being a transformative leader.  His promises will only be met by all of us doing our part. We create our hope, we don’t consume it. This is our path, we must do the hard work required to fulfill the “audacity of hope”. Yes we can.

Heavy Snow and Cold Temps. Is Global Warming Bogus?

•January 3, 2009 • Leave a Comment

This winter has been unusually cold and snow falls are very heavy. The most common response I hear is that global warming is obviously wrong, look at all this snow and cold. What more proof do you need?

Not much proof, just basic physics. Here are the facts:

What happens when ice melts?  Answer: The surrounding air gets cold as the “cold” is released from melting ice through global warming. This cold then enters the atmosphere making the air much colder.  Arctic air also becomes more moist, and this very cold and moist air circulates in normal global air currents, and dumps cold and snow on the northern latitudes.

The bottom line:  The cold weather and heavy snowfalls are due to the ice melt in the arctic.  This cold and snowy weather is because of global warming, not proof that it is not happening.

Another analogy might help.  Ask this question. How do you make ice cream? You put an egg custard in an ice cream maker. To freeze the ice cream, you pack ice around the outside of the canister. What do you do to make it extra cold? You melt the ice with rock salt. Melting the ice releases still more cold. This is the same way global warming creates severe cold around the world, and cold air hitting moist warm air creates snow.

It is fundamentally important to help others understand how the increased snow and cold temperatures are the result of the warming of polar regions and the ice melt. If you still are in doubt, visit a few of my web links.

If we are to make the sacrifices needed to survive global warming, everyone must first understand that global warming is real, and that the current situation is dire. Big money interests still pay professional climate liars and conduct ad campaigns to deceive the general public to believe that global warming is a matter of opinion.

James Hansen, arguably America’s foremost climate scientist, has suggested that the corporations spreading lies about global warming and climate change are committing crimes against humanity. I agree. If you care anything about posterity, or about the seventh generation, or nature, then you will learn the facts and become a part of the movement to get everyone on board. There is very little time to get this right. We all have to decide if we want to be a part of the solution, or sit idly by and seal our doom.

Local Action Alone Will Create the “Audacity of Hope”

•January 1, 2009 • Leave a Comment

With Obama’s election, many argue that America voted for change and to restore hope, but to most, hope means getting back to the good old days of consumerism. Our national hope is for a reverse gear to a cherished past characterized by passivity, hedonism and non-involvement.

We hope to be able to shop as we wish, to be able to drive our cars as far as we wish. We hope to live in abundance, to live in a just world. We hope to live in harmony with nature. We hope to finally solve the energy problem so that we might have as much energy as we wish to have. We hope to join the community of nations, and to end the era of American empire, or not. We hope to balance the budget, and we hope to cut taxes.  And so it goes . . .

Hope as defined in politics is intentionally vague. Hope is one of the cornerstones of the quadrennial pandorama. More or less, hope translates to “You can have it all” if you just hope. People who disagree violently can wander together in a fog of hope, after all, there are no specifics.  Politicians carried into office on a wave of hope “will implement our hope for us”.

Continue reading ‘Local Action Alone Will Create the “Audacity of Hope”’

CIA Helps Afghan Chieftans Bone Up on Family Values

•December 28, 2008 • Leave a Comment

CIA Using Viagra To Help Build Alliances In Afghanistan — Washington Post

As the Bush Administration, that super-nova of incompetence, orbits out of office, the mind boggles at the bold stroke of pushing boner pills to build alliances.

This falls on my all-time, you gotta be shitting me list.  I can only imagine the official spin machine in action:

White house officials, commenting on condition of anonymity said,  “Those ornery old warlords are pretty aggressive. After review of different tactics to channel their energy, we decided we could redirect their focus by strengthening their thrust in domestic affairs.  Bolstering their arsenal and rekindling their interest, has strengthened their southern alliances and reinforced family ties. Their smoking guns will come in the form of little blue pills. “

Continue reading ‘CIA Helps Afghan Chieftans Bone Up on Family Values’